A number of outstanding problems remain in regard to the Alpine Fault, two of which are: / Learning It could cause horizontal movement of up to eight metres. The length of the rupture will be up to 400 km, eg. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. - Toilet paper and large rubbish bags for your emergency toilet. There is also another that in its own way is relevant to Christchurch – showing what WILL happen when the Alpine fault goes next time. There is a chance that the Alpine Fault will rupture in the next 50 to 100 years. The Alpine Fault, which runs for 650km along the spine of the Southern Alps, produces an earthquake of about magnitude 8 on average every 330 years. Landslides would close major highways for up to six months, isolating communities and limiting food supplies across the South Island in the event of an Alpine Fault rupture. The investigation found the mean interval between large earthquakes on the fault is 330 years and two thirds of the intervals were between 260 and 400 years. Since the fault has major earthquakes about every 330 years, and the most recent one was 295 years ago, it’s likely to go … McFadgen, B.G. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. But good behaviour, in a scientific sense, may not bring much comfort to South Islanders. Bradley said emergency resources would be stretched if a major earthquake struck, and people could expect to "feel far more alone". . and Goff, J. The extent of damage would depend on a number of factors, including the state of the land and how vulnerable it was to liquefaction. ©NASA. Based on this 8000-year history, it seems that the Alpine fault is relatively regular in how often it has earthquakes: more so than the San Andreas Fault in California, for example. That's described as "very destructive;" weak buildings will fall down and many more will be damaged. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, known as a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." The shaking in Christchurch, as some below have identified, will be slow and rolly, you will not reach the intensity that the greendale sequence did and definitely not Feb 22 levels. Potentially there are a lot of things that can happen when and how the Alpine fault goes. There is no way of predicting exactly when an earthquake will happen. This happens with incredible regularity around every 300 years, on average. "Now that we have that understanding, we can prepare for it better, and hopefully we can lessen the impact it has on us as a society.". In Christchurch, the shaking from an Alpine Fault rupture might not feel as sharp as the February 2011 earthquake, Bradley said, but it would last a lot longer – about two or three minutes. An earlier event at around 1600 AD can be recognised throughout the study area, and this is the most recent event in the trench locations north of the Haupiri River. McFadgen, B.G. Scientists are trying to understand how the Alpine Fault works and how a really big … "There are things we can do about that . The surface rupture has extended into the north section of the fault as far as the Haupiri River area, which is 25 km northeast of the Alpine Fault junction with the Hope Fault. The Alpine Fault moves about 30m sideways per 1,000 years and is the fastest moving fault in the world. The Alpine Fault ruptures—on average—every 330 years with a magnitude 8 earthquake. Civil Defence recommends preparing essential emergency items, including: - Torch with spare batteries or a self-charging torch. He hoped public pressure on the Government would result in action. The Alpine Fault is one of Earth's most impressive geological features and capable of generating big earthquakes; in fact we're already a little overdue for one. GNS science said there was a 30 per cent chance of a large earthquake on the Alpine Fault in the next 50 years. Explore the Alpine Fault, one of Earth's most impressive geological features, where a big earthquake happens about every 300 years and where one is likely in our lifetimes. Just-released videos have shown what would happen in the event of a major quake along the South Island's big-risk Alpine Fault. / Major Faults in New Zealand The damaging Christchurch earthquakes ranged from magnitude 4.9 to 7.1 but what will happen when the Alpine fault goes and produces an 8, similar to the ’quakes in Japan? 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Each time the fault 'ruptures' it causes a quake around magnitude 8. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault, specifically a right-lateral strike-slip fault, that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand’s South Island. Alpine Fault: A single, relatively discrete fault surface within the Alpine Fault Zone, and its immediately associated pug, breccia, and minor faults. . - Wind and waterproof clothing, sun hats, and strong outdoor shoes. The Alpine Fault, which runs for about 600km up the spine of the South Island, is one of the world’s major geological features. The duration depends on the rupture length and then what happens afterwards. As with many natural systems, there was a spread of intervals with the longest being about 510 years and the shortest about 140 years. . It shows a rupture starting at the southern end of the Southern Alps and moving north toward Wellington. The Alpine Fault: when AF8 goes big! part of Project AF8 (Alpine Fault magnitude 8). The Alpine Fault is a clearly marked topographic feature cutting obliquely across the South Island. The Alpine Fault How scientists study the fault Scientists documented 24 regular M8 quakes along the fault over the last 8,000 years, averaging every 330 years. The last one was in 1717, 302 years ago, so a big one is coming. The Alpine Fault is called a strike slip or transform fault. Brendon Bradley has been using 3D computer modelling to predict what a major earthquake on the alpine fault could feel like. Recent research (published in 2012) by GNS Science has extended our knowledge of the Alpine fault earthquake record back through the past 8000 years. "Given what we know from geological studies of the Alpine Fault, we're anticipating a major magnitude 8.0-plus earthquake, rupturing 500km of the crust, so the shaking will be felt throughout the South Island, but the intensity and duration will ultimately depend on what happens on the fault." Click here for more details of these findings. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. In earthquake terms, t Approximate rupture dates are 1717AD, 1620 AD, 1450 AD, and 1100 AD. All these things mean that the Alpine Fault is a globally significant geological structure. The Alpine Fault is a geological fault that runs almost the entire length of New Zealand's South Island (c. 480 km) and forms the boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. There is also another that in its own way is relevant to Christchurch – showing what WILL happen when the Alpine fault goes next time. The rupture will produce one of the biggest earthquakes since European settlement of New Zealand, and it will have a major impact on the lives of many people. The Alpine Fault runs 400km up the South Island, along the western edge of the Southern Alps. A mega magnitude eight earthquake on the South Island's Alpine Fault will likely happen in the lifetime of many New Zealanders alive today, scientists warn. The last major earthquake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717, so we're already a little overdue for one of the biggest earthquakes in New Zealand's modern history. Newsweek subscription offers > The Alpine Fault is one of the world's major plate boundaries and New Zealand's most hazardous earthquake-generating fault. The Alpine Fault stretches for hundreds of miles (kilometres) like a spine along New Zealand's South Island. In between earthquakes, the Alpine Fault is locked. The shortest gap between quakes was 140 years, and the longest 510. The Alpine Fault runs for about 600km along the west of the Southern Alps. Movement on the Alpine Fault. The earthquake will last for about two minutes. UC PhD graduate Tom Robinson investigated what would happen in a magnitude 8.0 event on the Alpine Fault, which has about a one-in-three to one-in-four chance of occurring in the next 50 years. Geologists and authorities are racing to quantify what might happen, and how they might respond in the event of the next one, likely to occur some time in the next 50 years. Horizontal movement of the Alpine Fault is about 30m per 1000 years — very fast by global standards. Earthquakes along the fault, and the associated earth movements, have formed the Southern Alps. Home A simulation shows the widespread damage that could occur if the South Island's Alpine Fault ruptures. The average slip rates in the fault's central region are abo… New research out today reveals that the Alpine Fault - a strike-slip fault running almost the entire length of the South Island - is surprisingly "well-behaved" in its regularity. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] In the last 12 million years the Southern Alps have been uplifted by an amazing 20 kilometres, and it is only the fast pace of erosion that has kept their highest point below 4000 metres. Fault line . / Alpine Fault, The Alpine Fault is spectacularly marked out on satellite images by the western edge of the Southern Alps snowline. "If you're living on land that doesn't liquefy, then an Alpine Fault earthquake is unlikely to cause damage to your home in Christchurch," he said. It has ruptured four times in the last 900 years, resulting in earthquakes of around magnitude 8, and is now considered highly probable to go again in the next 50 years. and Goff, J. It forms a transform boundary between the Pacific Plate and the Indo-Australian Plate. PHOTO: PROJECTAF8.CO.NZ “What we know about the Alpine Fault is that it tends to produce big earthquakes, roughly every 300 years,” Dr Orchiston said. At 3 AM on May 29, 2013, the South Island’s technological uncon­scious roars […] / Science Topics Earthquakes along the fault, and the associated earth movements, have formed the Southern Alps. By analysing sediment deposited at two sites in Fiordland – John O’Groats and Hokuri Creek – during previous earthquakes, scientists have established that the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times over the last 8000 years. Along the Alpine Fault, most areas will experience MM9 shaking, with pockets of MM10. The glaciers and rivers have removed the rest of the material and spread it out across the lowland plains or onto the sea floor. - Food and water for at least three days. The rapid uplift also means that faulted rock from deep down has been brought to the surface, and can be studied by scientists. Right now, we've had an extremely large earthquake that has occurred near the Hope Fault and many other larger faults that feed into the Alpine Fault. "The surface expression of the Alpine Fault is remarkably clear, but there is some debate about the shape of the fault as it goes several kilometres underground. This trip runs from 3-5 November . The last time it did this was in 1717, when it produced about 8m of horizontal movement. It’s the "on-land" boundary of the Pacific and Australian Plates. It is the boundary between the Pacific … The Alpine Fault has a high probability (estimated at 30%) of rupturing in the next 50 years. The alpine fault earthquake will alter tectonic stress distribution, and other faultlines may rupture in the days or years following it. This fault has ruptured four times in the past 900 years, each time producing an earthquake of about magnitude 8. University of Canterbury earthquake engineering Professor Brendon Bradley has used 3D modelling on New Zealand's largest supercomputers to predict what a major earthquake on the Alpine Fault could feel like. 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